July. Already. That was quick. I suppose it depends on your perspective as to whether it has come around quickly or not. Ask my wife and she will say it has taken an eternity. Ask my children and they will probably have no concept of how long I have been away. Ask me, and it depends on the time of day, week, activity levels or whether lunch was good or not. July is significant for many things, mainly for the fact that I can now say that "next month I go home", but out here, apparently, it's not all about me, July is also the month that "transition" starts. Actually, transition is due to start during the Afghan solar month of Saratan, which ends on 22 July, but let's not split hairs. Transition is the process of handing over control from coalition to Afghan security forces and officials. Under this process, the Afghan military forces and civilian officials will take ever increasing responsibility for their own affairs and, more importantly, their own security. It is due to start simultaneously in seven areas of Afghanistan. Currently the areas scheduled for transition include Mazar-i-Saharif, (scene of the bloody and vicious murder of the seven United Nation employees in April), Herat (scene of multiple suicide and armed attacks) and Lashkar Gar (volatile hotbed of insurgency in Helmand Province). Good luck.
10 000 US troops are due to leave Afghanistan by the end of 2011, with 33 000 more to follow next summer. Canadian combat troops completed their last operation on 30 June, before pulling out. David Cameron has announced we will start our drawdown "in line with the US". This is from a total of 150 000 coalition troops that have been battling with the Taliband-led insurgency for over 10 years, all of whom are due to completely drawdown by 2014. We must be winning? Really. The attack on the Intercontinental Hotel this week has shown just how fragile the security situation is here, striking at one of the most heavily guarded sites in the heart of the capital. Afghan security police and troops were involved in a five-hour gun battle with Taliban militants that only ended with intervention from a US helicopter gunship and coalition special forces, neither of which are available to the Afghan government once we leave. A UN report stated yesterday that insurgent attacks were up 51% countrywide in the past three months when compared to 2010. A US backed campaign to prosecute corruption has silently died a death in the face of opposition from President Karzai and a campaign of assassination of officials and infiltration of security forces has gutted the governments ability to act. The investment of national treasure in Afghanistan has been immense. Billions of dollars have been spent here, and thousands of US, UK and coalition lives lost. The clumsy efforts to reach out to the Taliban for talks and a half-baked peace deal, after years of refusal to do so, the indecent speed at which we appear to be running for the exit and the fragility of the general situation here do not bode well and bring into question the value of that investnment. Even if, Inshallah, the security forces hold, then the poverty, corruption and lack of governance, coupled with a dramatic drop in foreign funding which will inevitably accompany any western withdrawal, will surely precipitate a collapse. As if that weren't enough internally, regionally, China, Pakistan and Iran are lining up as new players in another round of the "Great Game", the Victorian power struggle that lies at the heart of many of the problems in the area.
The common perception is that the Taliban will be back, in strength, as soon as the foreigners leave. In fact they are back already in many areas, with a network of shadow governors and corrupt government officals waiting to see which side to back. Interestingly, and perhaps ironically "Captive Nations Week" is at the same time as the start of transition - the third week of July. This is observed in the US and aims to raise public awareness of the oppression of nations under the control of Communist and other non-democratic governments. I am starting to wonder just how free and unoppressed the Afghan people will be when we all leave. I wonder if, in 2015, we and the Americans will be able to look towards Afghanistan with pride having liberated it from its non-democratic taliban government? I would like to think, that like my immediate future, the Afghan people, have something to look forward to. I suspect that's just wishful thinking.
No comments:
Post a Comment